Large-Scale Strategic Budgeting for Wildfire Management

This research develops a strategic planning model for developing preparedness budgets necessary for managing wildfires during the initial response period. The model uses a stochastic linear optimization (integer programming) approach to establish the effectiveness frontier of weighted acres managed (WAM), an effectiveness metric used in this business problem. The resulting integer program maximizes weighted acres managed for a given input cost level. The optimization engine can be run iteratively across a range of total cost constraints, which are determined by the minimum and maximum cost levels to be analyzed.

The major challenge of the project was to solve the original client-provided model in a reasonable amount of time without running out of memory. The strategic budgeting optimization problem based on the original model falls in the category of large-scale integer programming problems. For example, one large model instance consisted of 4.4 million 0/1 variables and 4.6 million rows with 17.4 million non-zero elements in the model matrix. The data needed for such high-end instances could not even be loaded on a fairly powerful machine with over 3 gigabytes of physical memory. Even if some of the relatively smaller models were able to be accommodated in memory, they soon exceeded memory limit within minutes of entering into the branch-and-bound stage.

Research proposed and developed a creative two-phase model-solving strategy to dissociate the complexity arising from low-level deployment decisions from the strategic global optimal resource organization. Phase 1 (a.k.a. decomposition) optimally deploys resources to the fires in each fire group to discover their resource preferences; Phase 2 deals with the global optimization problem (with an exponentially reduced complexity), and uses the deployment preference decisions made in Phase 1 to analyze and develop the optimal initial attack resource organization. With this innovation in place, some of the medium-sized model instances were able to be solved in less than an hour with 20 times less memory required.

Even with the two-phase solving strategy, some model instances were still too large to be accommodated in memory or too complex to be solved within a reasonable time limit (less than eight hours). IBM Research took the initiative and led a major reformulation of the optimization model, where time intervals are replaced by a continuous time variable, and all discrete time series are replaced by corresponding piece-wise linear (PWL) functions. The reformulation dramatically reduced the instance sizes, in terms of numbers of 0/1 variables, columns, rows and non-zero matrix elements, while improving on the quality of approximations used in the modeling. For example, a reformulated model instance reduced the number of 0/1 variables from 3.6 million to only 600,000. The reformulated model allowed all model instances to be solved, mostly within an hour, and has very good scalability that promises to gracefully manage even larger models in the future.

Research developed a method that enabled systematic performance tuning and improvement of optimization model preparation. Specifically, the method laid out a process comprising three consecutive steps, and for each step in the process, the method provides high-level guidelines by identifying a set of relevant design criteria and a ranking of design options against each criterion. The Research team then implemented this method by using those guidelines as templates and customizing them for the specific situations of the project to arrive at concrete plans for model preparation performance tuning and improvement. As a result, for all input datasets used in beta testing, time spent in model preparation was drastically reduced from approximately one hour to less than a minute.

Research added an innovative data pre-processing component to transform all physical data instances (input data) that correspond to the same logical data model into one normalized physical data instance. By doing this, they made sure that the same logical data model (e.g., with the same definitions of fires, fire groups, resources etc.), always yield exactly the same optimization result when used to run the model at different times, thus ensuring optimization process repeatability, an important factor that impacts client acceptance.

News and Information
Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System Preparedness Module.
Federal Wildland Fire Management Agencies


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